Bumps In The Road Ahead For Quinn

It was inevitable that Gov. Pat Quinn would hit a few roadblocks after taking over for Rod Blagojevich. It's safe to say the honeymoon is officially over. It's not just that Republicans oppose his tax plan; that was to be expected and it's yet to be seen how much that will mean in the long run. After all, Democrats control the House and Senate. However, they're not going to let Quinn's tax plan sail through with only Democrats voting yes, which means they need to convince some GOP members to vote for higher taxes too. Even so, Republicans simply aren't going to get the kinds of deep cuts they've been demanding. Too much of the state's budget goes to Medicaid and education. Quinn and Democratic leaders aren't going to let those programs see dramatic cuts. Even so, it will be weeks, if not months, until we know exactly what they'll have to do to placate the GOP. I'm sure at this point everything is on the table; more casinos, privatizing state services, maybe even selling some state assets outright. Now that Quinn's budget plan is official, the wheeling and dealing will begin in earnest behind closed doors.

As I said before, much of the focus will be on the proposal to raise incomes and the measures that state workers will fight tooth and nail to stop -- pension reforms and unpaid furlough days -- there are plenty of nickel-and-dime taxes and fee increases that will upset the voters. I've already mentioned the proposals to raise admission fees for visitors to the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. Then there would be the tax code changes that would mean you'd pay more for "medicated" hygiene products, as well as bottled cappuccinos and iced teas.

Well, if you've got a sweet tooth, you've got more to worry about than paying more for bottled frappuccino at the grocery store. A state lawmaker who is also a longtime dentist wants to charge a new tax on soft drinks. Of course, that's not sitting well with the companies who sell them. Since the money from the tax would go to state-funded dental care programs, the basic argument being made is that soft drinks rot teeth, so use the tax from that to pay dentists and convince people to drink fewer soft drinks. But, taking a closer look at the proposal, "soft drink" doesn't just mean things like Coke or Pepsi. It means: "any complete, finished, ready-to-use, non-alcoholic drink, whether carbonated or not, including but not limited to soda water, cola, fruit juice, vegetable juice, carbonated water, and all other preparations commonly known as soft drinks of whatever kind or description that are contained in any closed or sealed bottle, can, carton or container, regardless of size." Of course, lawmakers and taxpayers likely have very different ideas of what things are "commonly known as soft drinks." The only specific exceptions spelled out in the bill are "coffee, tea, non-carbonated water, infant formula, milk or milk products ... or drinks containing 50% or more natural fruit or vegetable juice." To me, that means things like Gatorade or fruit juice cocktails that don't have nearly as much sugar as what I believe most people think of when they hear the words "soft drink."

Then there are the new fees being proposed at the Agriculture Department. The head of the Agriculture Department says it's better for the agency to rely on fees charged to the farmers and businesses that the agency regulates, instead of the General Revenue Fund, which takes quite a hit in a recession. That may sound fine and dandy from an accounting perspective, but I have a feeling farmers and other businesses that pay fees to the Agriculture Department see things a bit differently. People in this state are plenty angry with state government already. These nickel-and-dime taxes and fees won't help in a recession.

Oh, and let's not forget about this decision at the Department of Human Services. Again, this makes good financial sense for the state, I'm sure. Keeping more than a dozen offices open where only a few people work at any given time -- especially if a lot of what they offer you can get online or over the phone -- but there will be plenty of people ticked off at having to drive to the next county to get services they need just to get by.

All the budget stuff aside, though, Quinn has some other big problems on his plate right now. He's kept a few Blagojevich people on board that I'm sure lawmakers thought would get the boot -- for example, former Blagojevich budget chief John Filan and former Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity director Jack Lavin, both now top Quinn advisors. But he's drawing a lot more heat for his choice of a new Illinois State Police boss. Granted, Quinn is right about John Monken being a hero. His service record speaks for itself. He was an Army captain who who finished near the top of his class, served two stints in Iraq and was awarded the Bronze Star. But even so, he's only 29 and he's never been a police officer or worked in law enforcement. It's one thing to put a guy who is only 29 in charge of a department where there are probably quite a few officers who've been on the force since before he was born. It's another to ask them to take orders from a guy who's never been on the job. It's not easy to earn a cop's trust when you haven't worn the badge. Chicago Police Superintendent Jody Weis was an FBI agent and Chicago cops just had a vote of "no confidence" in the guy. I think Monken might be in for a tough ride. I hope he's up to the task.

He certainly had a trial by fire already. Illinois Auditor General William Holland came out with a pretty scathing report about the state police during Monken's first week on the job. The report reveals that the backlog of untested evidence at state police crime labs has skyrocketed in recent years -- tripling between 2002 and 2007. The report also said state police provided misleading or inaccurate information about the backlog. As a result, police have sometimes been unable to make arrests and prosecutors have been forced to drop charges or cases have otherwise been blocked because they can't get the evidence they need. Monken says the department began fixing problems before he got there. As a result, Monken says the backlog has been cut down by a third since last year. Lt. Scott Giles, deputy director for the forensics division, said one key has been advancements in technology.

But Monken and Giles also claim parts of the audit are inaccurate. For example, the department outsources some evidence testing. The report claims that most tests conducted by the state's contractors aren't returned on time, but that even when that happens, the state doesn't enforce penalty clauses in the contract. In fact, the report says state police claimed they didn't know who put the penalty clauses in the contract or how they could enforce them. Giles says that's inaccurate, but he didn't elaborate on how and when contractors were penalized for failing to complete tests on time.

The report also claimed the crime lab in Rockford used an outright illegal procedure for testing evidence for about six months in 2007. It goes so far as to say top brass knew what was going on at the lab and didn't order it stopped right away. Again, Giles says that's inaccurate. He claims top brass ordered the procedure stopped as soon as they decided it was improper.

It's not clear if anyone will lose their job because of the problems with the evidence backlog, but it's a heck of a problem for Monken to have to tackle so soon. And he hasn't even faced a confirmation hearing before the State Senate yet, which is bound to be interesting since some senators have already said they don't like Quinn's pick.

Budget Bonanza

So, it's official. Gov. Pat Quinn is going after an income tax hike to help the state wipe out an $11.6 billion deficit. He's also seeking some pretty major pension reforms and other concessions from state employees. Although lawmakers were pretty much universal in praising Quinn for being straight-forward in his budget address, the reviews were pretty predictable from both sides of the aisle. Republicans were blasting the income tax proposal even before the governor formally announced his plan. He even got some backlash from his own party about a proposal that would keep local governments from getting their share of the income tax hike. Simply put, getting his ideas passed won't be easy.

But the governor's tax and pension proposals quickly drew the ire of the labor unions that represent state workers, as well as the business community -- two groups normally on opposite sides of any given issue. But Quinn makes a good point that, given the dire budget situation, everyone needs to make some sort of sacrifice, regardless of who got the state into this mess. The state's pension systems have been criticized for years by government watchdog groups. Going for a major pension reform on top of a proposed income tax hike is a bold step for a governor who will likely be seeking re-election next year.

But even though the income tax plan and the pension reform proposal will generate the most ink, there are plenty of nickel-and-dime tax and fee increases that are just as likely to upset Illinois residents. For example, the governor wants to begin taxing bottled coffee and tea drinks at the same sales tax rate as soft drinks. He also wants to get rid of the sales tax discount that shoppers get on shampoo, toothpaste, shaving cream and other hygiene products that are considered "medicated." An obscure part of the state's tax code means, for sales tax purposes, those items count as medicine. The tax code changes would mean if you buy a $5 bottle of shampoo or $5 worth of bottled cappuccino at the grocery store, you'll have to shell out an extra quarter in taxes. It doesn't seem like much money, but it obviously adds up if you buy that stuff all the time.

The governor is also planning to start charging people more money to attend the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. Adults would pay $5 a piece instead of $3 and kids 12 and under would no longer get in free; they'd have to pay $2. The state fair would still be one of the cheapest in the nation, but as one lawmaker pointed out, the governor needs to be cautious that he doesn't drive too many people away from the fair altogether.

The next couple months should be interesting once lawmakers get their teeth into the budget. It's pretty clear at this point that there will be some significant changes to Quinn's proposals. Exactly what lawmakers will ultimately agree on isn't clear, but State Sen. Dave Luechtefeld (R-Okawville) hit the nail right on the head: this is just the governor's proposal; House Speaker Mike Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton are likely to have their own ideas of what to do. Democrats certainly aren't going to let themselves be the only ones to wear the collar for an income tax hike, which means to get any kind of tax hike, they'll have to make some concessions to make GOP leaders happy. It's not clear what those concessions will be, but as Rep. Frank Mautino (D-Spring Valley) said, expect some big changes.

For now, though, those discussions will be made behind closed doors while lawmakers get back to nuts-and-bolts legislating. It will be interesting to find out if they follow through on pledges to push through real ethics and campaign finance reforms in the wake of booting out Rod Blagojevich.

Get Ready To Open Up Your Wallets

I know two weeks between posts is too long, but managing my time away from the office isn't easy. I'll try to start posting more often.

Anyway, Gov. Pat Quinn will be giving his budget address on Wednesday. We already know he's going to propose an income tax hike. Obviously, that's going to be a hard sell for Illinois residents, even with a $9- to $12-billion budget deficit. He's also going to call for some big spending cuts, so that might make it easier for lawmakers to vote for a tax hike. Of course, talk of an income tax hike brought former Gov. Rod Blagojevich out of the woodwork to say "I told you so." Of course, even though getting rid of Blagojevich had nothing to do with raising taxes, it wasn't hard to see a tax hike coming months ago. Even the State of Illinois doesn't have more than $9 billion in waste in a $60 billion budget.

Blagojevich might be gone as governor, but his legacy is far from forgotten. Quinn has slowly started reversing some of his predecessor's most controversial decisions, from closing Pontiac Correctional Center to moving the Illinois Department of Transportation's traffic safety division out of Springfield. On Friday, Quinn's office announced those jobs would not be moving to Harrisburg. That was definitely welcome news for Springfield, not to mention the scores of IDOT workers who no longer have to worry about choosing between moving to Harrisburg or finding a new job when the economy is in the tank.

Then there's Blagojevich's decision to appoint Roland Burris to the U.S. Senate. It's clear efforts to hold a special election to oust Burris from the Senate aren't going anywhere. Democrats won't say it out loud, but they're not going to risk losing the seat to a Republican now. Instead, they say it will cost too much money. They now claim it may cost more than $100 million, but if they hadn't blocked the issue in December, we could have held the primary for that Senate seat by now at the same time voters in the Chicago area were voting on who will replace Rahm Emanuel in the House of Representatives. Republicans aren't going to let the issue die anytime soon. They've been bringing it up practically every session day in Springfield since February. But Democrats aren't going to let the special election come up for a vote on either the House or Senate floor.

Meantime, there are a lot of familiar subjects coming up in Springfield. With a new governor in office, some of these issues might get more traction than normal, but it sounds like most of them probably won't be more than routine debate that ultimately results in no big changes. Gun owners want lawmakers to ease up on gun control. It's doubtful proposals to ban assault weapons or limit handgun sales will go anywhere past committee approval, but then again, gun owners also likely won't get the concealed carry law they've been seeking for years. There's also the annual debate about whether the state should expand gambling to help pay for a statewide construction program. Republicans say they want more casinos, including one in Chicago, to spare Illinois residents from higher taxes. But Quinn isn't exactly keen on more gambling and House Speaker Mike Madigan hasn't let the issue get very far in the House in recent years. It doesn't sound like that's going to change anytime soon. One effort that may get more traction is a proposal to sell lottery tickets online. Senate President John Cullerton is pushing for online sales and he also wants to bring in a private firm to operate the Lottery, although the state would continue to own it. That's not the only effort out there to expand the Lottery. Rep. Mike Boland (D-East Moline) wants Illinois to follow the lead of Florida and start selling instant scratch-off Lottery tickets at highway rest stops. It's not clear how far that proposal will get, but lawmakers might need to grab onto any revenue proposals they can if they don't involve mandating higher taxes.

The Lottery also isn't the only gambling option that lawmakers might open up to the Internet. Sure, you can already find plenty of places online to place bets on the horses, but Illinois doesn't get a cut of the money and neither do the racetracks. It's not the first time lawmakers have thought about allowing online bets on horse racing, but it is the first time they've faced such a big budget crisis, so it's a safe bet (no pun intended) that lawmakers will give this one some serious thought.

Finally, for all their talk of reforming Illinois government after they booted Blagojevich and welcomed Quinn to the governor's office with open arms, Democrats aren't exactly champing at the bit to pass any major reform bills. Even when it comes to simply making the process of giving themselves raises more tranparent, they're apparently not ready to budge.

A new governor also means a new opportunity to either abolish the death penalty or end the moratorium on capital punishment in Illinois. But, outside of the anti-death penalty lobby, that's not going to be anyone's top priority right now. In fact, because there's a moratorium on executions, lawmakers probably don't feel any great need to abolish the death penalty. And Quinn has made it clear he won't be lifting the moratorium anytime soon. But with a huge budget deficit, maybe the anti-death penalty people need to change tactics, since part of their argument all along has been death penalty cases are more expensive than life sentence cases.

All that said, the next few months will be interesting. Lawmakers are going to have to do SOMETHING to show they're serious about reform if they want voters to swallow an income tax hike. And as Carol Marin put so succinctly in her Sunday column: "Any state official with a backbone will admit, as House Republican leader Tom Cross did the other day, We can't [budget] cut our way out of this one.'" The only question now is whether Quinn will get the income tax hike he's seeking, or if lawmakers will turn to some other tax to fill the gap.

From one R.B. scandal to another.

So it's been a month since Rod Blagojevich was kicked out of the governor's office. Pat Quinn and state lawmakers made a big show of promising bipartisan cooperation to clean up state government, but the cleanup effort isn't exactly an overnight job. And bipartisan cooperation? That didn't last very long at all. As for any hopes of the attention in Springfield returning to legislating, the past month has been almost non-stop Roland Burris updates. The GOP is slamming Democrats at every turn over the Burris issue. Leading Illinois Republicans are accusing Democrats of delaying proposals to hold a special election that could oust U-S Sen. Roland Burris until it is too late. Whether or not you agree with concerns among some that lawmakers can't just change the rules and hold a special election now that Burris is seated, he's made it abundantly clear he won't go down without a fight. If lawmakers did try and set a special election, Burris would certainly sue and drag out a the process for as long as he can, so who knows if it would ever happen. But the argument that it would cost too much money? As always, that depends on whose figures you believe. Republicans say the state has enough money in its current budget to pay for a special election to replace Burris, but the Democrats obviously disagree.

Granted, Burris has offered at least four different versions of what contact he had with Blagojevich and his allies before he was appointed to the U.S. Senate, but the state has much bigger problems. Considering Illinois has a deficit approaching $9 billion, lawmakers seem to be taking their time getting down to brass tacks. It's pretty clear Burris won't be resigning and Democrats have no desire to let the G.O.P. have a shot at the Senate seat until the 2010 election. The Dems certainly deserve to take some heat for flip-flopping about a special election, but there are a lot of other ethics issues out there they can tackle right now.

There has been some good news for Illinois in the past month. President Obama and the Democrats followed through on the stimulus plan. Whether or not you agree with all of its provisions or some of the other programs Obama has been touting, it's obvious Illinois badly needs the infrastructure money it's getting from the stimulus package. Illinois is getting about $1.5 billion in federal funding for transportation project, but the state has several billion dollars more in infrastructure needs. That means officials are faced with the daunting task of deciding which projects go froward and which are left out. So, the big question now is where to start?