Quinn's Biggest Flip-Flop

The fact that Gov. Pat Quinn is once again doing a 180 on a major issue should be anything but surprising. However, the fact he's making such a stark reversal on one of the biggest pieces of legislation that was passed out of the legislature is still somewhat remarkable. The Chicago Tribune's Monique Garcia is reporting that Quinn will veto the campaign finance reform legislation that lawmakers passed this spring. Not only was this bill touted by supporters as the most important piece of ethics reform to come out of Springfield this year, but Quinn himself testified in favor of the bill, calling it "landmark" legislation. He's waffled on the issue since then, to the point lawmakers held up on sending it to his desk in an effort to use the bill as leverage in budget talks.

Republicans and members of the governor's Illinois Reform Commission have criticized the measure, saying it does little to control the flow of campaign cash in Illinois. They have gone so far as to say it would give legislative leaders more control over legislative races than they already have. It seems Quinn changed his mind if he's going for an all-out veto rather than amending the bill himself. Either way, he's not winning any points with House Speaker Mike Madigan, Senate President John Cullerton and other top Democrats who pushed hard to get the bill passed.

Frankly, I'm guessing Madigan and Cullerton are furious. They made this the centerpiece of ethics reforms this year. Considering Illinois has absolutely no limits on how much money anyone can donate to a political campaign, Quinn and other supporters seemed justified in saying that the measure was a good first step toward significant campaign finance limits in Illinois. It seems a strange tactic, then, for Quinn to veto the legislation altogether, rather than working with Madigan and Cullerton to come up with a trailer bill to impose stricter limits down the road. How is he going to have any credibility in negotiating a new bill after such a major reversal? I'm no expert on Illinois history, but I'm guessing it's pretty rare for a governor to veto a bill that he testified in favor of before both a House and a Senate committee.

We'll find out at noon exactly what Quinn's reasoning is in vetoing the measure completely, rather than using his broad amendatory veto powers or working with top Democrats to strengthen the bill during the fall veto session. The big question now is, can Democrats override the governor's veto? Probably not. Although there are enough Democrats to override a veto in the Senate without GOP support, one Democrat -- Sen. Mike Jacobs (D-East Moline) -- voted against the legislation. And House Democrats would need at least one Republican vote to override any veto and Republicans don't have any reason to help out the Democrats on this one.

The Dominoes Are Falling Into Place

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan dropped a big bombshell today. She's not running for the governor's office or U.S. Senate. Instead, she's running for a third term as A.G. A lot of people are calling this a surprise decision, since she was widely considered the hands-down favorite for either spot. But I'm not surprised at all. A U.S. Senate seat doesn't carry the kind of power that the governor's office or even A.G. does. A single senator can't implement policy on his or her own. A rookie senator, even one as popular as Lisa Madigan would be, won't have a lot of influence on Washington politics. Then there's all the travel to consider for a mother of young children. I honestly never thought she'd run for Senate, despite being wooed by President Barack Obama and other top Dems.

As far as her possible bid for governor, sure she'd be the odds-on favorite; but it's a terrible time to want to take over Illinois government. The budget is in the worst mess Springfield has ever seen and lawmakers don't seem to want to fix it, otherwise they'd have passed a tax hike weeks ago. That they didn't, to me, was the biggest sign Lisa Madigan was planning to stay put at the attorney general's office. If she was planning to run for governor, I have no doubt her father, House Speaker Mike Madigan, would have twisted enough arms among his fellow House Dems to get a tax hike passed. That way, a budget fix would be in place by now, Lisa Madigan could criticize Gov. Pat Quinn for raising taxes in a recession but still reap the financial benefits when she took office in 2011. That Mike Madigan didn't get a tax hike passed through the House was a pretty big red flag that his daughter wasn't going to run for governor in 2010. Maybe she still has her sights set on the office in 2014. She's only 42, after all and still the most popular Democrat in the state.

But that's a long way off. Her decision for 2010 was what nearly every politician in Illinois was waiting for. Would she or wouldn't she? That's what everyone wanted to know. Now that she's confirmed she wants to stay where she is, the dominoes are starting to fall into place for lots of other campaigns in 2010. Word is U.S. Rep Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is already planning to run for the U.S. Senate now that he knows he wouldn't have to face Lisa in a general election. He'd been considered a possible G.O.P. candidate for governor as well, but that field is already pretty crowded and Kirk has a much better shot at winning the Senate seat. He's a moderate Republican, which should help him against Democratic candidates.

State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias had already been exploring a Senate bid, so I bet he'll be making his candidacy official any day now. State Comptroller Dan Hynes has yet to announce his plans for 2010, but has apparently told Capitol Fax blogger Rich Miller that there's no chance he'll run for a fourth term as comptroller. I'd say that means he's probably going to run for governor, though it's possible he'll go for the Senate again. But then he'd have to face Giannoulias, who's got a huge campaign warchest and quite possibly the backing of the White House, since he and Obama have been so close. On paper, Hynes would make a great candidate for governor. He's been comptroller for three terms now, so he definitely knows his stuff when it comes to state finances. He'd been warning about the state's budget mess for months, if not years before this year's budget fiasco. His problem is he's never been much of a charismatic candidate. If he can find a way to charm the voters, the governor's office should be his in 2010. Quinn has been flailing as governor, flip-flopping on a regular basis and he'll have to wear the jacket for whatever cuts or tax hikes are ultimately approved to get a budget deal done for next year.

Lisa Madigan's decision could be a windfall for Republicans, though. She's a much more formidable opponent than any other Democrat who's been mentioned to this point, so next year should be an exciting race. None of the Republicans in the race is exactly what you'd call a superstar, but without Lisa Madigan in the race, no Democrats really are either. Unless, that is, Giannoulias changes his mind and runs for governor instead. I don't know that he's ready for the job, but this might be the best time for him to take his shot, while he can still ride Obama's coat tails to some degree.

Sayonara, Adios, Auf Wiedersehen

So yesterday was my last day as a reporter at the Capitol. It wasn't exactly what I'd call an enjoyable day. Only Illinois lawmakers could accomplish so little in six months. Yes, they got rid of Blagojevich and they deserve credit for that. But they fell far short when it came to the government reforms they promised at the start of the year. They got a $30 billion capital plan passed, as well as a $9 billion mini-capital plan, but because of their dispute over the budget, not a single project has actually started yet. Hell, they wouldn't even send the big capital plan to the governor for more than a month, despite all their talk about how important it was to create jobs for the state. Sure, the governor said he wouldn't sign it until he got a budget he would support, but he's flip-flopped on so many other issues, I bet he'd have signed it by now. Say what you want about Quinn, I think he genuinely cares about the state. He'll sign it.

But everyone, including the governor, has failed completely on the budget. For all their talk of bipartisan cooperation after they kicked Blagojevich out, no one would budge an inch to get a real budget for the state. Now the governor is preparing to veto the so-called "half budget" that lawmakers have sent him. The legislature might try to override that veto, but there's a good chance they won't be able to. The House will need at least one Republican to help, even if every Democrat votes to override. And just as Republicans had no political incentive to vote for a tax hike, there's no reason they should vote to override a veto of a budget they did not support. Which means a government shutdown could be coming in the next couple weeks unless lawmakers agree to a temporary budget to allow talks to resume. Even that might take more work than it should. Quinn wants a temporary budget that would allow spending levels that assume a tax hike has gone through. Republicans want a temporary budget that cuts spending to 2008 levels. Who knows if either side will budge.

Breaking A Logjam

Lawmakers and the governor still can't agree on a budget solution. There's little, if any, chance that the House will call a vote on a tax hike today. It's much more likely they they will send the governor a budget that doesn't raise taxes, instead relying on borrowing, fund sweeps and other gimmicks to get a "balanced" budget that would keep the state going for most of the fiscal year. Then lawmakers would probably have to come back to vote on taxes after they know whether they'll be facing any significant challengers in the 2010 election.

But yesterday lawmakers did essentially end one dispute with the governor by releasing the $30 billion capital plan. Lawmakers approved the plan in late May. But Rep. Lou Lang (D-Skokie) had placed a legislative hold on the capital plan last month after Gov. Pat Quinn said he would not sign it until he got a budget deal he would support. That infuriated Lang, who was the chief House sponsor of the construction plan. So he stopped it from going to the governor by keeping it under House control. He removed that roadblock yesterday, but not until he gave the governor an angry tongue-lashing for going back on a promise that he would not link the capital bill to the budget. “We had just gone through six years of a governor who didn't tell it to us the way it was. We have just gone through six years of a governor that attempted to use the Illinois General Assembly as his own personal play toy and you and I for those six years were fed up with that," Lang said. "These bills need to be signed for the good of the state of Illinois. And while I support more revenue in the budget, it is unconscionable to withhold his signature on those bills." However, there's no indication that the governor will sign the capital plan right away.

Winding Down

These next two days will be my last as an intern for Illinois Public Radio at the Capitol. It's been an amazing experience for the most part. I've made a lot of great friends here in Springfield and, I never thought I'd say this, but I'll miss this place when I'm gone; not so much the city itself, but the friends I've made here. It really stinks that after making so many wonderful friends, we'll most likely all end up scattered all over the place. I know that's how life goes, but it doesn't make it any easier.

Anyway, the House will be back in session today to deal with budget issues, but it doesn't seem any more likely they'll take a vote on a tax hike. Figuring out what is going to happen by tomorrow night is getting to be like trying to study a quantum physics textbook written in Sanskrit. Nobody can seem to agree on how big the budget deficit is at this point, much less how to fill the hole.

With less than two days left until the next fiscal years, the budget mess is playing havoc with social service agencies. Some are planning layoffs and service cuts unless an unexpected budget deal comes through to fully fund those providers. However, some are moving forward with cuts already. Threats of budget cuts are nothing new to social service agencies, but the threatened cuts have never been this big before. On top of that, with the economy still in the tank, borrowing money to hold them over until there's a full state budget isn't an option this year. Not to mention, raising money from private donors won't get most of these groups anywhere near the amount of money they need to avoid layoffs and service cuts.

Applying Some Pressure

The capitol was quite the scene yesterday as 5,000 protesters or more swarmed the statehouse to try to pressure lawmakers into voting for a tax hike. Protesters packed nearly every corridor of the capitol rotunda, crammed onto stairwells and gathered outside nearly every entrance. The crowd was so big that at one point, security guards blocked any more protesters from coming inside. I don't know whose idea it was to tell protesters they should wear black t-shirts, but they're lucky demonstrators weren't fainting left and right. A heat index above 100 combined crowds of people packed like sardines, all while dressed in black on a sunny day is not a healthy mix. A mix of labor unions and social service agencies organized the protest to oppose budget cuts that would slash social service funding in half.

Those same groups have been staging smaller protests around the state the past few weeks. It sounds like they may be changing the minds of some lawmakers who originally voted against a tax increase. For example, Rep. Mike Boland (D-East Moline) says he may change his vote if the House brings up a tax hike again. But with only 42 House Democrats voting the first time and 71 votes needed now to pass a tax hike, it will take a lot of work to get a tax hike approved. It also means bringing at least one Republican on board. Realistically, maybe 10 Republican votes would be needed, as there are some Democrats who just won't vote for a tax hike, no matter what.

Regardless of where things stand right now, there won't be a tax hike vote this week. And there's a chance there won't be a vote at all before the end of the fiscal year. If House members can't get together enough votes to pass something, there doesn't seem to be much reason to call a tax hike for a vote again. And Senate President John Cullerton says the Senate won't vote on a tax hike again until the House passes something. Most Senate Democrats already went out on a limb last month to approve a larger tax hike than the governor was seeking, only to see that proposal die in the House without a vote. Cullerton won't let that happen again. So, while we might see lawmakers only one more day after today before FY 2010 begins, those should be two interesting days.

Here We Go Again

Hundreds, if not thousands, of advocates for state-funded social service programs will be descending on the state capitol today. Lawmakers will be at the capitol for a special session to deal with the state budget mess and other issues. The advocates will be there to greet them with a major rally to demand an income tax hike to avoid massive cuts to social service programs. Social service agencies say they expect up to 5,000 people dressed in black to take part in the rally. It's an interesting choice to bring that many people dressed in black to a protest rally on a sunny day with temps in the mid-90s and the heat index expected to hit 101 to 106.

As I've mentioned on the blog before, so far lawmakers have approved a budget that would cut the budgets for social service programs by 50 percent or more. Gov. Pat Quinn reiterated yesterday that he's not willing to accept what he calls a "half-baked" budget. But he wouldn't offer a direct answer when asked if that means he'll veto the budget if lawmakers don't provide more revenue. He's still pushing for an income tax hike that was rejected last month. He says some lawmakers who voted against the tax hike in May are willing to vote for it now. He wouldn't offer any names and it seems doubtful he's convinced enough legislators to switch their votes to get the three-fifths majority he'd need to pass a tax hike now.

The governor has been making the rounds across the state the past month to push for his tax plan, warning about the deep cuts that would need to be made to social service agencies without more revenue. So it shouldn't be a surprise that he took another opportunity while in Springfield yesterday to call on lawmakers to approve a tax hike. The thing is, he did it at a ceremony to honor Illinois students who competed in the Scripps National Spelling Bee. It seems like an odd choice of events to push for a tax hike, especially since the crowd consisted entirely of the kids, their parents and the media. He even staged an impromptu spelling bee as he handed each kid their certificate, asking some of them to spell words like whistleblower, gridlock, mudslinging and legislature. Not exactly subtle, but certainly entertaining.