The Dominoes Are Falling Into Place

Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan dropped a big bombshell today. She's not running for the governor's office or U.S. Senate. Instead, she's running for a third term as A.G. A lot of people are calling this a surprise decision, since she was widely considered the hands-down favorite for either spot. But I'm not surprised at all. A U.S. Senate seat doesn't carry the kind of power that the governor's office or even A.G. does. A single senator can't implement policy on his or her own. A rookie senator, even one as popular as Lisa Madigan would be, won't have a lot of influence on Washington politics. Then there's all the travel to consider for a mother of young children. I honestly never thought she'd run for Senate, despite being wooed by President Barack Obama and other top Dems.

As far as her possible bid for governor, sure she'd be the odds-on favorite; but it's a terrible time to want to take over Illinois government. The budget is in the worst mess Springfield has ever seen and lawmakers don't seem to want to fix it, otherwise they'd have passed a tax hike weeks ago. That they didn't, to me, was the biggest sign Lisa Madigan was planning to stay put at the attorney general's office. If she was planning to run for governor, I have no doubt her father, House Speaker Mike Madigan, would have twisted enough arms among his fellow House Dems to get a tax hike passed. That way, a budget fix would be in place by now, Lisa Madigan could criticize Gov. Pat Quinn for raising taxes in a recession but still reap the financial benefits when she took office in 2011. That Mike Madigan didn't get a tax hike passed through the House was a pretty big red flag that his daughter wasn't going to run for governor in 2010. Maybe she still has her sights set on the office in 2014. She's only 42, after all and still the most popular Democrat in the state.

But that's a long way off. Her decision for 2010 was what nearly every politician in Illinois was waiting for. Would she or wouldn't she? That's what everyone wanted to know. Now that she's confirmed she wants to stay where she is, the dominoes are starting to fall into place for lots of other campaigns in 2010. Word is U.S. Rep Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is already planning to run for the U.S. Senate now that he knows he wouldn't have to face Lisa in a general election. He'd been considered a possible G.O.P. candidate for governor as well, but that field is already pretty crowded and Kirk has a much better shot at winning the Senate seat. He's a moderate Republican, which should help him against Democratic candidates.

State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias had already been exploring a Senate bid, so I bet he'll be making his candidacy official any day now. State Comptroller Dan Hynes has yet to announce his plans for 2010, but has apparently told Capitol Fax blogger Rich Miller that there's no chance he'll run for a fourth term as comptroller. I'd say that means he's probably going to run for governor, though it's possible he'll go for the Senate again. But then he'd have to face Giannoulias, who's got a huge campaign warchest and quite possibly the backing of the White House, since he and Obama have been so close. On paper, Hynes would make a great candidate for governor. He's been comptroller for three terms now, so he definitely knows his stuff when it comes to state finances. He'd been warning about the state's budget mess for months, if not years before this year's budget fiasco. His problem is he's never been much of a charismatic candidate. If he can find a way to charm the voters, the governor's office should be his in 2010. Quinn has been flailing as governor, flip-flopping on a regular basis and he'll have to wear the jacket for whatever cuts or tax hikes are ultimately approved to get a budget deal done for next year.

Lisa Madigan's decision could be a windfall for Republicans, though. She's a much more formidable opponent than any other Democrat who's been mentioned to this point, so next year should be an exciting race. None of the Republicans in the race is exactly what you'd call a superstar, but without Lisa Madigan in the race, no Democrats really are either. Unless, that is, Giannoulias changes his mind and runs for governor instead. I don't know that he's ready for the job, but this might be the best time for him to take his shot, while he can still ride Obama's coat tails to some degree.